How to choose the right DFS contest
We are not trading securities on the Stock Exchange, but the principles of risk that apply to trading stocks also apply in choosing the right Hockey DFS contest. Choosing a DFS contest is deciding what kind of risk you will take on. The roster you build should be dependent on risk level of the contest you’re playing.
If you don’t enter a balanced portfolio of games, you leave yourself open to the risk of making very little money, or busting out quickly. The risk associated with each contest you enter should influence the personnel decisions you make with your roster. A balanced risk portfolio can let you steadily increase your bankroll, while still taking some shots at big money.
Let’s look at 50/50s and Head to Heads contests. In these contests the winners basically double their investment minus the 10% or so that the hosting sight keeps for administrative fees and profit. You will need to win 53% or better on all cash games to make a profit. If you’re playing cash games, you want to roster players that consistently produce and stay away from boom/bust players. You only need to finish in the top half so there is no need to take unnecessary risks.
Tournaments (and 3-100 Players)
Tournaments are high risk, but more risk means more reward. You must be mindful that very few people win on a nightly basis and that means each tournament entry is more likely to lose than win. You may have to lose quite a few before you win one. Even if you finish in the money, you will have to finish towards the very top to get in the big money. That said, when you win a tournament style game, you pay for a lot of losses. You have to place high in a tournament if you want to win big, but you have to play smart if you want to keep from going broke.
Decision making with this kind of risk/reward structure calls for more extreme decisions. Paying for an elite player means you need a LOT of production from all of your value bets, and even then, you may not win. You’re much more likely to find success taking a cheap player in a good situations and hoping for lightning in a bottle.
Multipliers are the in-between games. Double Ups are like 50/50s, with two minor but important tweaks; you make what you invest, but the cutoff for cashing out is the top 45% contestants instead of the top 50%, like it is in 50/50s. That little bit matters, but mathematically it means your risks are about the same as with 50/50s. Each of the other Multipliers provide higher payouts as their names suggest (Triple Up, Quadruple Up, Quintuple Up), but fewer people finish in the money as the payouts increase. The higher the payout, the more these games start to function like Tournaments.
Spread your exposure
You may want to play a couple Multipliers games in lieu of 50/50s. Your entries should still consist of at least half of your money entered in cash games or Double Ups.
For example, a well-structured investment on a $20 budget may consist of six $2 – 50/50s, a $2 Double Up, a $2 Quadruple Up, a $2 3-100 Players contest, and a $2 tournament. That gives you a good balance of low risk/low reward with high risk/high reward games. Just remember to develop at least two rosters: one for the safe games, and one for the higher risk/reward games. That will give you the ability to stick around for a while, profit as you learn, and strike gold when it all comes together for you.
Lastly, our DKL pros have pointed out that you should take less risk early in the season and play more cash games. As the season progresses we will have more relevant statistical data to help you make more informed roster decisions. It’s difficult to take good calculated risks with last year’s data.
DK Legends – PGA 2022 Stats
Our PGA Golf Pro Picks are designed to give you the winning edge when creating your PGA Lineups for DraftKings. Our Pros utilize extensive research and unparalleled statistical driven algorithms to populate the very best players each week. Our Pros are play the exact same players they give out to members and again in 2023 – DK Legends will be giving out PGA Showdown lineups for FREE, be added to “Close Friends”. If you have any questions about our statistics, memberships, Showdown lineups, or just want to talk golf, please reach out to us at [email protected]. We’d love to hear from you!!
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2022 DKL Pro Statistics
Winning Golfer Picked: 10
Golfers Finishing in Top 10: 71
Golfers Making Cut: 70%
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Well, daily fantasy fans, it is here—the last opportunity to play daily fantasy until next fall. I’m talking about the Super Bowl, of course, between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. On any given Sunday, both are a great source of daily fantasy points.
But against each other?
Well, they may still be, but it is more likely one thrives over the other. The question daily fantasy players will have to answer is who; who is going to thrive? How you answer it will likely determine how you choose your roster for the big game.
NFC Conference Championship Sunday Roster Suggestions
With only one game and two teams to mine for players, FanDuel is just offering their single-game version of daily fantasy football– rosters of five guys with one designated as our MVP and worth 1.5X the points.
Let’s take a look at the guys we can choose from:
- QBs: If you are going to use a QB, there is only one real choice—Patrick Mahomes ($16000). Yes, the 49ers defense is going to be tough, but if anyone can still throw for 300 yards and four touchdowns on them, it is Mahomes.
As for Jimmy Garoppolo ($14000), he might have a decent day if the Chiefs can force the 49ers to pass, but don’t count on it.
- RBs: The 49ers are going to try to keep Mahomes off the field by pounding Raheem Mostert ($13500) all day long. Damien Williams could get enough work in the run and pass game to be a good start, but his price tag is kind of high ($14000)
- WRs: If the 49ers are going throw, Deebo Samuel ($8500) will get most of the work. The hard part is not knowing how much work he’ll get. Count on even less from Emmanuel Sanders ($7500). Tyreek Hill, however, is a must-start ($12000). Andy Reid will make sure the talented playmaker gets the ball in his hands.
Sammy Watkins is a maybe ($10500), but try hard to find a more reliable option if you can.
- TEs: George Kittle ($11500) has had four receptions for 35 yards in the playoffs; he can be skipped. Of course, if you do, that means he’ll probably go off. Travis Kelce ($12500) should be a great start, though.
- Kickers: I hate to say it, but both kickers, Robbie Gould ($9500) and Harrison Butker ($9500), could end up having some real value.
You would think this would be easy since you only need a handful of guys, but that is not the case. What if the Chiefs run up the score early and force San Francisco to abandon the run? What if the49ers ground game dominates and limits the number of opportunities Patrick
Because both possibilities are so real, I am entering two rosters:
No. 1—Raheem Mostert (MVP, $13500); Damien Williams ($14000), Tyreek Hill ($12000), Sammy Watkins ($10500), Deebo Samuel ($8500).
No. 2— Patrick Mahomes (MVP, $16,000); Damien Williams ($14000); Travis Kelce ($12500); Tyreek Hill ($12000); Ross Dwelley ($5500).
If you want to play the traditional version of daily fantasy football this week, you can. The talent pool s smaller with just two games going on, but you can do it. But if you are up for a little change, but not too much, then you may want to give FanDuel’s Super Flex game a try.
You still choose a QB and two RBs, but then you only go with two WRs, a TE, a Flex, and a Super Flex (1.5X points). Yep—no defense.
Sound interesting? Well, then, let’s build a roster!
Conference Championship Sunday Roster Suggestions—Super Flex
Let’s give it a try. Here goes nothing!
- QBs: You might think Patrick Mahomes would be the obvious choice here, but I am going with Jimmy Garoppolo ($8200). He should have a decent game, and I can use Mahomes elsewhere.
- Super Flex: Patrick Mahomes is a must-start here ($10,400). He is most likely to go off, so if you are going to get 1.5X points for someone, he’s the one you want.
Of course, this leaves me with just $41,400. So, there is little room for error and a need for bargains.
- RBs: But my RB1 is not going to be a bargain—Derrick Henry ($9800). With close to 200 yards against two of the better run defenses in the league, he should be in for another against the Chiefs lackluster run defense.
That means I do need to save some money with my next pick—Raheem Mostert ($5800). He didn’t get much work last week, but he was the man for the 49ers down the stretch in the regular season.
So, that leaves me with $25800 with four players to go. This is going to be tough. To get the best guys possible I may need to sacrifice my Flex.
- WRs: Davante Adams ($8300) and Tyreek Hill ($7400) are hands down the best guys on the board and hard to pass up. They’ll seriously deplete my funds, but I think it will be worth it.
- TE: Jonnu Smith ($5600) had some productive games during the season. Hopefully, he can have another Sunday.
- Flex: With only $4500 to spend the best possible option I can see is Byron Pringle. KC used him earlier in the season and he did well. So, maybe I’ll get lucky and they will throw a few his way Sunday.