Bullish or Bearish – Danny Duffy
Bullish or Bearish?
As I write this, Danny Duffy is sporting a sexy 2.81 ERA, but I am here to say FADE HIM. After spiking to a career high 95 mph average last year, he is now at a career low 93 mph.
Numbers wise, it doesn’t get any better. He has a paltry 6.75 K/9 ratio and a below average 3.38 BB/9. These stats aren’t necessarily stable yet, but they are within 1% of the numbers he put up in both 2014 and 2015, before what now looks like the outlier that was Duffy’s 2016 campaign.
Kaufman Stadium helps pitchers so I’d be willing to believe he can beat his xFIP of 4.76, but as a fly ball pitcher (39.6% ground ball rate), there is no way I believe in his very low 5.1% HR per Flyball rate.
Danny Duffy is an average pitcher who will now be considerably overpriced based on last year’s results. It will be a long time before he becomes cheap enough to consider for me, and I will be playing hot right-handed bats against him regularly moving forward. If we can catch him in a hitter friendly park against a good lineup, I may go full stack against Duffy.
I am VERY BEARISH on Danny Duffy.
Have a question about some of these stats? This article can help.
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