Bullish or Bearish: Hyun-Jin Ryu
A Look at the Value Hyun-Jin Ryu Can Offer Your Lineup
My first thought when I noticed Ryu going for $7,600 on FanDuel yesterday was that I was surprised ANY Dodger pitcher was that cheap. The Dodgers just completed the best 50 game stretch in modern baseball at 43-7; any Dodger pitcher has a pretty high chance of bringing home a win, which makes them at least interesting for tournament games. What made Ryu more than just interesting coming into Sunday’s game, was how clean of a stat line he put up in his second start back from the disabled list on July 30: 7 innings pitched, 1 walk, and 7 strikeouts. When married with his very cheap price, that’s the stuff tournament wins are made of.
Prior to hitting the disabled list on June 24, Ryu was compiling a mediocre season with a 4.21 ERA supported by a 4.01 xFIP and a much higher FIP of 5.00. However, in the words of Eno Sarris, “the best in season predictor of pitcher success is strikeouts minus walks” and Ryu was sitting on an 8.55 K/9 and a 2.72 BB/9 rate, both much more solid than his ERA led on. Over the three seasons he has pitched, Ryu has always had excellent command- having a silly 2.17 BB/9 for his career. The 8.55 K/9 would be a career high and it’s gotten even better at 8.74.
Hyun-Jin Ryu’s return
Over the three starts Ryu has made since his return, Ryu has a 0.95 ERA, 2.70 xFIP supported by a 9.47 K/9 and 1.89 BB/9, both elite. That sounds like one heck of a bargain for $7,600 to me. I’d play someone with those numbers at that price in a cash game or a tournament, but the fact that he pitches for the best team in baseball gives him a little extra punch.
In cash games, I’m playing Ryu comfortably until he is closer to $9,000. In tournaments, you probably don’t want to pay quite that much for anyone, but he’s certainly worth it under $8,000. If you can free up the money, I may even pay up to $8,500 on him in a tournament, but only if it was an unpopular play. Either way, buy now before this window closes. The market won’t be slow to pick up on this one.
I am BULLISH on Hyun-Jin Ryu.
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