Bullish or Bearish – Ty Blach
San Francisco Relief Pitcher Ty Blach
Upon first glance, there are a handful of interesting things about Ty Blach- A Groundball rate of 50.8% is excellent. A BB/9 of 2.01, supported by a 64% first pitch strike rate is sexy. Hell, Blach even has an FIP of 3.87 suggesting that Saturday’s shutout of the lowly Phillies may have an ounce of sustainability to it. Nevertheless, elite Control can only take you so far. At some point you have to strike hitters out if you want to have success in the Majors.
Ty Blach has a 3.55 this year. No, not a 3.55 ERA, a 3.55 K/9. That is less than HALF of league average. At 3 points per strikeout on Fan Duel, that means on average, Blach scores 9 points LESS than a pitcher with an average strikeout rate. Considering that most people will be using someone with an above average K/9, the deficit you agree to by playing Blach may even be worse.
All pitchers have days when balls hit in play take all the wrong bounces even when they have good stuff, but if they can’t strike anyone out, all they can do is hope and pray for defense. If Blach doesn’t have good feel for his pitches on a given day, he could get blasted without the ability to get a clutch strikeout. This alone makes him a terrible play to ever consider in cash games.
Can you play Ty Blach in a tournament?
If he was dirt cheap, throwing a dart at the wall, stacking the hell out of your offense and seeing what happens may not be a terrible idea. But Blach is going for upwards of $8000 on Fan Duel, which is pure insanity for someone with such limited upside, who’s best game of the season was a 4 strikeout game against the Phillies (the 25th best offense per wOBA). So essentially you have to pay a premium for someone with the potential to be mediocre. That’s not how you win tournaments. Unless Fan Duel decides to celebrate golf by awarding a win to the lowest score of the night, get Blach off your radar and look for spots to fade him on the road against teams that hit lefties well.
I am BEARISH on Ty Blach.
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