Opening Night NBA Breakdown and Takeaways
Opening Night NBA Breakdown and Takeaways
Lets start with the Celtics and Cleveland game. As most of you saw Gordon Hayward fractured his left ankle in the first seven minutes of opening night in the NBA. So what does this mean for the Celtics? It means that their championship hopes are gone, well at least for this year anyway. It also means that you must capitalize on the Celtics youth while you can, while they are still affordable on both of the main DFS sites. Jaylon Brown, Marcus Smart, Jason Tatum, and Terry Rozier all hit tournament value of 5.5x salary on DraftKings. Gordon Hayward was expected to have just below a 20% usage rate going into this season. You add 5% usage rate to every player on the Celtics I just mentioned and you can find high value, heavy usage players along with heavy minutes at a steal of a price. The Celtics have a back to back and Head to Milwaukee to play the Bucks. Look for a slight drop off from opening night on some of the Celtics players due to a back to back game and a very emotional and draining locker room after that loss. Jaylon Brown (20 yrs old) and Jason Tatum (19 yrs old) looked like they were top draft picks against the Cavs and you can expect a lot more of that to come from the two. Look for both the minutes and usage to rise as they are going to both be heavily leaned upon for production across the board. Marcus Smart did not have a good first half at all I believe he was 1-10 from the field, and still hit his value easily. Every one of the Celtic players I stated above only went up $200 in price on DraftKings, so put one or two in a lineup while you still can at these salaries.
Celtics Value Plays for 10/18 slate
Marcus Smart $5000
Jason Tatum $4100
Jaylon Brown $3900
Terry Rozier $3800
Now for the Cavs:
The Cavs have a guy named Lebron James and that is enough said. As a team they did not look particularly sharp. The Cavs had a 16 point lead in the second half that quickly evaporated because it just looked like nobody wanted to be the clear number two option and the intensity was somewhat stagnant when the Celtics when on a big run. Rose had his moments, but Derrick Rose and Kevin Love looked vulnerable on Defense and average on offense at best. The Cavs have a ton of new players on the roster this year and it looks like it is going to take time to figure out who is going to step up as the clear number two option. Dwayne Wade, Kevin Love, and Derrick Rose all missed projections for opening night in DFS. Moving forward it might be a risky DFS play for the three Cavs mentioned above until we see more productive usage rates out of them.
Now for the GSW Vs. Houston Game
This game had an unbelievable over/under of 231 and it clearly lived up to the scoring hype. The Warriors looked like the same old Warriors hitting threes and moving the ball around. The Rockets showed that they can compete as well and came back to steal the win in the last minutes of the game. The Rockets actually only led for just over one minute in the game, but it was the right minute to snatch the win. Chris Paul didn’t look quite like Chris Paul and was not even on the floor the last few minutes in the fourth quarter. It looked like CP3 was not really needed on the floor at times so keep an eye on that and see how this Harden-CP3 combo unfolds. It might go right back to the Harden show and clearly drop CP3’s usage rate. It looks like P.J. Tucker and Mbah Moute were great additions for the Rockets defensive surge and comeback win. Those two rockets were great value plays in DFS also, so continue to monitor their minutes and production moving forward.
The Warriors spread the ball around so it is difficult to pinpoint who is going to hit value for that particular night. Usually one of the studs (Klay, Steph, or Durant) can have an amazing game on any night, it is just picking the right one for your squad. You still can find value on the Warriors roster. You have to look at matchups when building your roster. Draymond Green almost had a triple double and would have had one if he had not gotten hurt in the third quarter and left the game. They shoot and share the ball at an unbelievable rate and actually play Defense. Nick Young had an unbelievable debut and might have earned himself more minutes so look out for that cheap option on a night where the game pace is high. The Warriors might have played every single player on the roster so some nights the minutes and blowouts will clearly have a role in rostering GSW for DFS.
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