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We Review Our Bullish or Bearish Series

By Matthew Kirkeby - 2 years ago in MLB News

Midseason Review of past BoB stars:

Zack Godley (Bullish): 

I don’t think people are realizing how good he’s been.  He’s got well above average strike outs (9.27 K/9), excellent control (2.75 BB/9), and a very high groundball rate (57.5%).  That’s how you spell ace with statistics.  Still going for $8.800 on FanDuel, I don’t see why I wouldn’t pony up $9,500, especially in a good spot.  He’s not Kershaw, Scherzer, Wood, Strasburg, but his higher groundball rate makes him less prone to the long ball than his teammate Greinke.  If his price hits $10,000, we might need to do some soul searching but in the meantime fire on all cylinders.

Jimmy Nelson (Bullish): 

I could write the same headline for Jimmy Nelson as I did for Godley, but his strikeout rate (10.0 K/9) and walk rate (2.19) are definitely sexier and probably stand out a bit more.  He just doesn’t have the ground balls (50%), which is why he is probably a more public play than Godley.  I’m also lumping Nelson in the same price range as Godley.  I’ll happily pay $9,500 and reassess at $10,000 but he is also a 2017 breakout ace.

Matt Garza (Bullish): 

If you jumped on him right after I wrote about him, you got some good cheap production for a couple games.  Then came the tire fire.  That may have been what led to his DL stint, however, and now that he’s back and healthy, he’ll be cheap as hell ($6,500 on Fan Duel Thursday) so he may be a worthwhile punt play in good spots for your tournament lineup, but I may have gotten a little too excited about him.

Carlos Gonzalez (Bullish): 

He already homered since I wrote about him…  Ok, so I’m cheating.  Read the article if you want more on him.

KC Royals (Bearish): 

If I have a clear miss this year, it’s them.  Moustakas has developed into a solid power hitter, Hosmer and Cain have been all around solid.  They are earning their price and are absolutely worth picking your spots with.  Just keep in mind that their home park skews pitcher friendly so if you’re looking to stack, another venue is preferable.

Danny Duffy (Bearish): 

I thought for a moment he may prove me wrong for being bearish on him and saying that his numbers looked like pre-2016 Duffy.  The mea culpa is that the control gains are real and he’s a decent pitcher and definitely worth a cash game play at home in a good spot for $8,300 (most recent FanDuel price).  However, the loss in velocity is real and with it, came that above 9 K/9 rate.  A 7.1 K/9 rate is below average and although his 11.3 swinging K rate suggests that could improve, the swinging K rate is also down from 12.9% last year, so he may peak at simply average with the strikeout.  That dampens his prospects for tournaments considerably and overall means he’s not as good of a pitcher anymore.

Zach Eflin (Bearish):

He taunted me for a few more starts before his luck ran out.  He and his 6.13 ERA and 4.71 K/9 have been demoted to the minors.

Aaron Nola (Bullish): 

He scuffled for another couple of starts but he’s been virtually an ace since.  He went for $9,300 on FanDuel Tuesday.  Picking spots is always the way to go, but I’m happily paying up in Cash games.  He’s probably too expensive for tournaments unless you can find a way to play him when most people think you have to look elsewhere.

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