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Bullish or Bearish- Nick Castellanos

By Matthew Kirkeby - 4 years ago in MLB News

Nick Castellanos

 

While .285 with a career high .212 Isolated Slugging Percentage (ISO) may not elicit excitement for DFS players, it confirmed an uptrend.  Entering his 4th season as a now 25 year old, Castellanos has increased his ISO each of the last two years and is fresh off that career high batting average.  His batted ball data has been strong and I’ve also witnessed him hit opposite field homeruns that made him look like a skinny Miguel Cabrera.  All these things show the track record he had coming in, but he has let down DFS owners this year, sitting at a meek .229 batting average with a mediocre 7 homeruns this season.

 

Nick Castellanos

 

Nick Castellanos at second glance

There are some things going for the former prospect that may elude your first glance.   He is still hitting the ball really freaking hard.  His hard hit % sits at an impressive 49.4%, a significant career high, almost 15 percentage points higher than his previous career high last year, and he has cut his soft hit% to 8.9% which is equally impressive.  That suggests that he is hitting the ball really hard and just getting unlucky; his .289 BABIP, down from a career average of .329, corroborates that assertion.  He’s swinging a bit less this year and has even increased his walk rate to career high 8.5%, representing a significant improvement in his patience at the plate.  That coupled with the fact that they’ve been hitting him in the top 3 spots of the lineup in Detroit this year provide a lot of stability to his DFS output.

 

Nick Castellanos

 

When the price is right

To be clear, I’m not saying I ever want to pay $4000 on Fan Duel to get him in my line up.  Despite his excellent batted ball numbers, he still careers a swinging strike rate of 14.8%, which would be reason to ignore a hitter without the sexy batted ball numbers.  However in the $3000 and below range, he is a solid play, but even more so once his luck corrects.  Then you can play him daily until the price catches up.  Until then, his wOBA is a little higher at home and against lefties, so that may be the combination you look for to take a shot on him.

I am Bullish on Nick Castellanos

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