Don’t Be Seduced By T
Don’t Be Seduced By T.Y. Hilton’s Numbers
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is one of the best young receivers in the game today. Even though he does not have Andrew Luck throwing him the ball, he is second in the NFL in receiving yards with 702.
Last week, he torched the Houston Texans with five receptions for 175 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
When you see that a guy had production like that, it is easy to think you should insert him into your daily fantasy lineup for the following week. Even if he doesn’t do that well (which he probably wouldn’t), chances are good he’ll have a good game.
Right?
Not necessarily.
To the casual fan, it probably looks like he torched a great defense last week. But with the injuries the Texans have suffered on both sides of the ball, they are not the formidable opponent they normally are. Yes, the Texans still have some good players on defense, but there is a reason their unit is the 19th ranked pass defense in the NFL.
Does this mean the gaudy numbers Hilton put up against them are not as impressive?
Absolutely not! He has a great day and deserves all the credit in the world. However, to assume he’ll have a good day this week because he did so last week would be foolish.
Look at all the numbers.
When you do, Hilton’s true daily fantasy value becomes a little clearer. His only other touchdown came against the Cleveland Browns in Week Three. While he may be averaging almost 80 yards a game, most of it (505 yards) came in just three (Cleveland—153; San Francisco- 177; Houston—175).
In four of his other six games, he gained 30 yards or less.
So—start or sit this week?
Sit him.
At best, Hilton is a boom or bust player this season, and he only appears to boom when the Colts play a struggling team. Pittsburgh has had some issues this season, but they have the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL this season.
There is no reason to believe Hilton will blow up against the Steelers as he did against Houston. If anything, he is more likely to have a day as he did against the Bengals (two receptions for 15 yards), Jaguars (two receptions for 27 yards), or Titans (one reception for 19 yards).
Start him if you hate money but otherwise look for a better option.
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