DK Live Feed
Build Your Lineup

Build Your Winning Lineup

Use our lineup builder to create your winning lineup for DrafKings & FanDuel.

Get Started

Shop Our DK Gear

View Our Shop
Nate Karns

Bullish or Bearish – Nate Karns

By Matthew Kirkeby - 3 months ago in MLB News

Nate Karns

Nate Karns

A former 12th round pick who was dealt for a back up catcher in 2014, Karns was more of a shot in the dark than a pedigreed prospect. Having been dealt two more times since then, it’s easy to see why there hasn’t been much excitement about a 4.46 ERA over his first 7 starts. Looking at his numbers, though, he is showing some interesting signs of improvement.

His 10.71 K/9 and 2.90 BB/9 are clearly career bests and his 12.9% swinging strike rate backs up the high strike out rate. Couple those with a career high 55.2% Groundball percentage. Looking at his pitches, for further evidence to support these improvements, he is now throwing 15.8% changeups, up 4% over his career and that pitch has gone from below average to very good according to fangraphs’ pitch value numbers. He continued last year’s trend of throwing about 35% curveballs, but more importantly, the pitch values on that pitch have gone up a full point, making it a plus pitch as well.

Nate Karns

His xFIP sits at an excellent 3.24. That assumes that his 22% HR per Flyball rate regresses to league average (about 10%), which may be a bit aggressive given his previous two years of a 12.8% and 11.5% HR/FB rates. Kaufman Stadium will help suppress homeruns, but even if it stays high at 12 to 13%, his ERA should get under 3.5 which would make him at a $9000 pitcher and he’s priced at $8200. It may be shrewd to avoid playing him in homerun friendly parks, such as his home park, until you see improvements there, but if he keeps the 55.2% GB percentage, he will still be giving up fewer homeruns than he has in past season

I am BULLISH on Nate Karns.  He may not go too deep into games, but if keeps striking out more than 10 per 9, he can provide strong value.

Have a question about some of the stats mentioned above? This article can help.

ALL SPORTS. ALL ACCESS.
ONE MEMBERSHIP.

Join today and receive instant access to handpicked fantasy players for all Daily Fantasy Sports. Start outscoring your competition and learn the strategies to become a daily fantasy guru.

[fbcomments count="off" num="5"]